The French real estate market has gone through a correction phase between 2023 and 2024, the structural effects of which are permanently altering the understanding of purchase, sale, and investment projects. Understanding these mechanisms remains a prerequisite for correctly assessing a real estate project in 2024 and beyond.
Old-New Gap: The Structural Parameter That Real Estate Projects Must Integrate
The significant event of the recent period is not the drop in rates or the decline in prices, but the lasting disconnect between the old and new markets. On the old side, a rebound of about 12% in the number of transactions was recorded in 2025 compared to 2024, reaching around 950,000 sales for the year according to the 2025 Housing Account from SDES.
The new market, on the other hand, continues its decline. This gap has concrete consequences for managing a project: in the old market, competition among buyers is gradually returning in certain segments, which reduces negotiation margins. In the new market, the scarcity of delivered supply creates delays and additional costs that many project holders underestimate.
To follow these developments and delve deeper into each segment, the analyses published on real estate on ARTS Constructions allow for a cross-reference of market data and field feedback.
Mortgage Rates in 2024: Reading Beyond the Nominal Rate
The measured decline in interest rates that began in 2024 has restored purchasing power to borrowers. However, we observe that the nominal rate does not summarize the real cost of a loan. Three parameters significantly alter the final envelope.
- The usury rate, which was recalculated monthly during the rising phase, returns to a quarterly rhythm. This return to the classic calculation can create a threshold effect at the beginning of the quarter for files with modest incomes.
- Borrower insurance, often overlooked, represents an increasing share of the total cost. Since the Lemoine law, cancellation at any time allows for renegotiation of this item even after signing.
- Guarantee fees (mortgage, bank guarantee) vary greatly depending on the chosen institution. On a long-term loan, the gap can reach several thousand euros.
We recommend comparing offers based on the APR (annual percentage rate) rather than the displayed nominal rate. A well-structured file, with a targeted contribution and optimized duration, remains the main lever for obtaining favorable credit conditions.
Real Estate Prices and Territorial Disparities: Targeting Rather Than Generalizing
Real estate prices experienced a general decline in 2024, but this national average masks very contrasting realities. Major metropolitan areas (Paris, Lyon, Bordeaux) have seen their prices fall more sharply than medium-sized cities, where local demand supports valuations.
Territorial disparities render any national strategy ineffective. A purchase in Rennes is not managed like a purchase in Marseille, neither in terms of price per square meter, nor in terms of selling time, nor in terms of rental potential.
For a rental investment project, a fine reading of the local market takes precedence over macro trends. Three criteria deserve systematic analysis:
- The purchase price / annual rent ratio, which gives the gross profitability and allows for comparisons between cities.
- The rental vacancy rate, a direct indicator of market tension. A low rate signals demand exceeding supply.
- Infrastructure projects (transport, university, business zone) that alter price trajectories in the medium term.
Energy Renovation and DPE: A Non-Negotiable Purchase Filter
Since January 2024, homes classified G on the energy performance diagnosis can no longer be rented out. This ban, stemming from the Climate and Resilience law, has had a dual effect on the market.
On one hand, thermal sieves are being negotiated with significant discounts, creating opportunities for buyers willing to undertake renovations. On the other hand, the cost of energy renovation (insulation, heating system change, ventilation) must be integrated into the overall budget from the research phase, not after the signing of the compromise.
For an investor, acquiring a property classified F or G while anticipating the ban schedule (Fs will be affected starting in 2028) can be a relevant strategy, provided that the renovation budget is accurately estimated and eligibility for aids like MaPrimeRénov’ is verified.
Preparing a Solid Financing File: The Technical Points That Make a Difference
The quality of the banking file determines not only the approval of the loan but also the negotiated conditions. We find that files are rarely rejected for insufficient income, but for presentation flaws.
The maximum debt ratio remains set at 35% of net income, including insurance, in accordance with HCSF recommendations. This ceiling leaves little room: an ongoing auto loan or a recurring overdraft can be enough to jeopardize a file.
Three preparatory actions significantly improve the chances of acceptance: paying off residual consumer credits at least three months before submission, stabilizing bank accounts (no overdraft on the last three statements), and providing a contribution covering at least the notary fees. A contribution greater than 10% of the property’s price significantly improves the proposed rate.
Using a broker remains relevant when the borrower’s profile has a particularity (self-employed, variable income, multi-property owner). The broker negotiates in volume and accesses pricing grids that traditional banking agencies do not systematically apply.
The real estate market post-2024 is read with tools different from those that worked before the rate increase. The gap between old and new, local price disparities, and the growing weight of energy performance in property valuation redefine the assessments. A successful project relies less on market timing than on the rigor of financial structuring and the precision of local analysis.
